This article is from page 2 of the 2006-10-17 edition of The Clare People. OCR mistakes are to be expected so download the original SWF or the rendered page 2 JPG
WORDS of caution have been issued in relation to the latest political poll in the county.
Among its critics is Councillor Joe Carey (FG) who polled just seven per cent of the first preference votes in Ennis (five per cent in the constituency), despite topping the poll in the county town in the last local election.
“There was an over-emphasis in this poll on Shannon. Both Shannon and Ennis were coupled together as an individual polling area, thus diminishing the influence of the Ennis vote,” he said.
“Given the fact that Ennis and its environs is by far the biggest population area in the constituency, with over 30,000 people, one has to question the validity of such a poll.”
“Because Ennis was not given a proper weighting, this poll dramatically underestimated my vote. As an Ennis-based candidate I was put at a disadvantage. The same can be said of the Green Party candidate, Brian Meaney,” he said.
“It’s not the first time TG4’s poll was way off the mark, as evidenced by the poll which was conducted before the 2002 General Election,” he added.
While believing that the poll showed her “well positioned to win a second seat for Fine Gael” in Clare, Cllr Madeleine Taylor Quinn was equally cautious of the poll’s finding.
She said when last TG4 sampled her support – just two years ago on the eve of the European Elections – they underestimated her actual vote on the day by 50 per cent. She added that, in recent years, for various reasons, Irish political polls had become less accurate and required a wider margin of error.
“A final point I will make is that even when it is viewed with appropriate caution, the TG4 poll casts in a rather peculiar light the last poll published in the county just a fortnight ago,” she said.
Deputy Pat Breen, who according to the poll will retain his seat, said “With four candidates in the field, there was bound to be fragmentation of that first preference vote, which will make the gaining of a second seat all the more difficult. I have always stated that my preference was for two or three candidates seeking to regain two seats in the county.”
Meanwhile, Deputy James Breen said he was happy with his showing but said the only poll that matters was the one on the day of the election.